variance

When do your results mean anything?

Live poker results are mostly noise for a long time. This shows how long, so you can judge your decisions instead. Study before, review after.

Your numbers

Edge you want to confirm
bb/100
After rake and tips
Standard deviation
bb/100
An assumption borrowed from online poker, not measured live
Hands per hour
Hours played so far
Observed win rate
bb/100
After rake and tips
Bankroll in buy-ins
Each buy-in is 100 big blinds

What the numbers say

Hours to confirm a 5.0 bb/100 edge
4,149 hours
Until results can tell that edge from zero
Risk of ruin
8.5%
Of losing the bankroll, if that edge is real
Your true win rate could be anywhere from -32.2 to 32.2 bb/100.
That is after 100 hours at your observed win rate.
Results range after 100 hours
-816 bb to 1,116 bb
If your true win rate really is 5.0 bb/100
Results are noise at live sample sizes. Judge your decisions, not your last session.

Share these numbers

The link holds only the numbers on this page. Nothing about you, and nothing records who opens it.

Assumptions

Win rate and spread are estimates. The standard deviation is an assumption, and these are rough ranges at 95% confidence, not promises. Results, rake and swings vary by game.
PrivacyLimits and data
21+ only. A study and review tool: never use it during a hand or at the table. No real money, no guaranteed results. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.